Friday, January 06, 2006

Another Hubbert's Oil Peak Event: Kuwait's Biggest Oil Field Is Failing

By Elaine Meinel Supkis

Kuwait admits biggest oil field's output is dropping. This is yet another indication of the Hubbert Oil Peak. Now they lie about how rapidly it is falling. Remember, Gulf War I began because they slant drilled into Iraqi oil fields to mask the decline.

From the Kuwait Timescourtesy of the Peak people:
It was an incredible revelation last week that the second largest oil field in the world is exhausted and past its peak output. Yet that is what the Kuwait Oil Company revealed about its Burgan field. The peak output of the Burgan oil field will now be around 1.7 million barrels per day, and not the two million barrels per day forecast for the rest of the field's 30 to 40 years of life, Chairman Farouk Al-Zanki told Bloomberg. He said that engineers had tried to maintain 1.9 million barrels per day but that 1.7 million is the optimum rate. Kuwait will now spend some $3 million a year for the next year to boost output and exports from other fields.

However, it is surely a landmark moment when the world's second largest oil field begins to run dry. For Burgan has been pumping oil for almost 60 years and accounts for more than half of Kuwait's proven oil reserves. This is also not what forecasters are currently assuming.

Last week the International Energy Agency's report said output from the Greater Burgan area will be 1.64 million barrels a day in 2020 and 1.53 million barrels per day in 2030. Is this now a realistic scenario?
They always lie when they can but since they belong to OPEC, they have to show current pumping rates. We have tried to make an end-run around OPEC by invading OPEC countries and then using their votes to get what we want. Unfortunately, the people of Iraq have interfered with this scheme somewhat.

Nearly everyone's head spun when it was announced by American Quisling puppets that Chalibi, the neo-cons' favorite con man, has taken over the Oil Ministry. Obvioiusly, we intend to hang on to this valuable realestate in Iraq no matter how many American or Iraqi dead it takes. Stay the course and all that rot.

When Saddam first snarled about attacking Kuwait years ago, it was because the debts incurred with his crazy war with Iran had risen so high, he couldn't pay for them easily and his buddy in Russia was on the economic ropes thanks to the thankless Afghanistan invasion (ouch, historians will have a field day with the resonances from all this!) so they wanted money from Saddam, pronto.

And oil prices were dropping because OPEC nations were pumping way over their share, driving down prices, so they could have gold bathtubs and French mistresses, etc. Then Kuwait, seeing their oil drop in volume, began "slant drilling" on the border of Iraq, giving Saddam a causus bellus that was stronger than the American excuses for war this time around.

Well, the party is drawing to a close in the smaller OPEC nations! Even as they build bigger palaces and go skiing in the desert in summer, the whole edifice is collapsing just like the pilgrim hotel in Mecca. Russia isn't part of OPEC but is an "observer" who of course is playing the OPEC game better than the originals. They are the "swing state" vis a vis oil production since they do both oil and gas and do so directly with Europe, China and Japan, the three other industrial powerhouses.

Despite a short period of instability, they have reasserted control over the vast lands of the Russian Empire and are slowly re-evolving into a super power, thanks to their budding alliance with China. (We lost the Cold War)

I lost the link but I read yesterday that Iran's Prime Minister was attacked near the city of Zabol which is Sunni territory. Evidently, his driver and bodyguard was killed. This isn't a big news story so I can't vouch for it, just one of the many rumors running around in the Muslim media. We can't trust any media these days, all of them push and pull news to suit them just like the NYT showed yesterday with the toady article burnishing Bush's image followed immediately by the outraged reporter demanding the real story be published.

Getting real news is very tricky stuff. I can easily imagine Sunnis trying to kill the Shi'ite leader of Iran. The murderous forces being unleashed in the Middle East are just getting into gear. As the oil begins to be less and less (ahem, like, right now!) the violence over who gets control of an increasingly valuable resource will skyrocket.

Of course, with the USA in front of the wolf pack, leading the way.
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